November Residential Sales Information

The Indiana Association of Realtors released its November 30th year to date residential sales data for the state.

The Data

Taken at face value, the numbers are not encouraging.  State wide, year to date unit sales are down by 6.4% compared to 2009 and by 13.8% compared to 2008.  Unit sales for November  were 29% below 2009.

The statistics for Tippecanoe County resemble the report for the state, but are a little more encouraging.  Year to date unit sales are 4.8% below 2009 and November was 21% below November of 2009. 

What the Date Means?

Taken at face value, the numbers are not encouraging.  However, when you dig a little deeper, they are not surprising or as troublesome!  The powerful Federal income tax credit program to motivate first time home buyers launched in early 2009 was originally scheduled to expire on November 30, 2009.  The program was extended in mid-November to June 30, 2010.  However, by the time the extension was announced, the Realtor community had cued up a long line of closings in the last two weeks of November in order to meet the deadline.  So, the weeks and months leading up to the first expiration date were very good real estate months in the midst of a real estate recession.

Now that the federal home buyer tax credit has fully expired (6/30/10), we are experiencing a traditional market without the favorable enhancements of a very successful federal stimulus program.  In July, August and September, the transition was very difficult.  The summer months were uncharacteristically slow.  There is no doubt that the extended June 30, 2010 expiration of the tax credit accelerated a large handful of summer buyers (and perhaps 2011 buyers) into the first half of the 2010. 

When the year closes, I anticipate we will see a year that consists of three distinct pieces.  Portions of the first half of the year were characterized by strong sales activity and periodically multiple offers on a property.  The third quarter was very slow, measured by buyer activity (showings, open house activity and written offers).  The fourth quarter is rebounding. Are we emerging from the recession, it is hard to say?  What I can state with confidence is we are clearly emerging from the post tax credit slumber in the third quarter.

Reasons for optimism!

We are seeing a lot of positive signs in the current market place and on the horizon. First of all, we continue to enjoy fine interest rates. The recent slight movement upwards has proven to be a reminder that these rates will not last for ever and serious buyers need to take action.  Second, the buyers we are working with are more serious.  Our relationship between showing activity and offers written has improved.  I don't think there are as many "lookers" in the market as earlier.  That being said, many of our buyers are "looking for a deal" and sellers are not of an equal temperament.  Our negotiations are often long and tiring.  However, for the reasonable and persistent, many great opportunities are coming together.  Finally, the quality of the homes on the market is strong. We have fewer homes listed by "sellers" who are testing the market.

All of these factors cause us to have strong optimism as we prepare to celebrate the holidays and enter 2011 with a full tank of gas.

America's Best Neighborhoods: 2010

Congratulations to the Ninth Street Hill Neighborhood Association for being recognized as one of America's best neighborhoods by the American Planning Association.  Two other distinguished neighborhoods recognized by the Association in 2010 are the Frank Lloyd Wright Historic District of Oak Park, Ill and the Lower Downtown ("Lo Do") neighborhood in Denver.  To qualify for consideration, a neighborhood must be at least ten years old, have definable boundaries and be rich in architecture and history. 

For more information, I've attached a link from Forbes magazine.

Journal and Courier Reader' Choice Awards

Coldwell Banker Shook received pleasant news last week: we are once again the winner of the Journal and Courier's Reader Choice Award in the real estate company division. This is the second year the survey has been performed and the second year we have one.

I'm told there were over 200,000 votes cast, but I also recall that a survey participant had to cast a minimum of 12 votes before their survey could be submitted.  So the number of participants may be in the tens of thousands, but none the less, it is nice to be selected by a large cross section of our community.

Our company has a rich history, of which I am proud.  But what is most exciting to me is what we are doing right now.  The desks formerly occupied with distinction by Dorothy Fischer, Phyllis Windle, Charles and Robert Shook are now filled by an equally talented and energetic group of real estate professionals, who like their predecessors, are amongst the best in the business.  They are implementing marketing techniques we never dreamed of 20 years ago and are involved in complicated property issues that provide a whole new level of service and protection to our customers.

We look forward to serving our community for many more years.  Thanks for your support.

Democracy

Our country made a grassroots decision yesterday to make a fundamental change in the leadership of many its legislative bodies.  Although the election season is lengthy, the decision was made in a short period of time and in an orderly manner. There was no violent uprising by the party taking leadership, no one was assassinated and the transition will take place peacefully during the next two months. 

Whether you are Republican, Democrat, Independent or Libertarian, one has to marvel at how well democracy works.

September Existing Home Sales Numbers.

The Indiana Association of Realtors has released its September, 2010 existing home sales statistics for the state and each county.  The numbers continue to reflect the softness the markets have experienced since the close of the Federal home buyers tax credit on June 30, 2010. The program was incredibly successful in nurturing demand, especially at the first time home buyer level, where the size of the credit was most attractive, and in all likelihood, accelerating some Q3 and 4 2010 demand into the first half of 2010. 

Closed unit sales for the state in September dropped by 17.6%, compared to September, 2009.  However, year to date sales were even with last year, demonstrating the success of the tax credit.  Likewise, pending sales in September (a barometer for October closings) were down by 21.%, but only off by 1.4% on a year to date basis. 

A more encouraging measure, in particular when assessing the future health of the market, is the number of months supply of home sales in inventory.  On a statewide basis, the number of months dropped from 12.0 and 12.1 months in September 2008 and 2009, respectively, to 10.3 months in September, 2010 (a significant14% decline).

The Tippecanoe numbers parallel the State numbers and other peer communities.  Unit sales for the month of September were 19.0% below last year, compared to a 20.5% decline in Marian County and a 22.5% decline in Monroe County.  Year to date units sales in Tippecanoe County are off by 2.0%.  Values are holding steady. The average year to date sale price in Tippecanoe County is 0.4% above last year.

It is still difficult to accurately predict when the local residential market will permanently emerge from this nationwide recession.  However, a few factors are becoming increasingly clear. 

1.  Our industry benefited from the Federal tax credit and accelerated some late 2010 sales into the first half of the year.   We are currently paying the price for the benefit we enjoyed earlier.

2.  There is good reason to believe that in spite of the completion of the tax credit and the temporary moratorium on foreclosures issued by some large banks, we are beyond the bottom of the recession and are on the gradual road to recovery.  Overall conditions are not getting worse.

3.  Employment numbers are slowly getting better rather than worse.

4.  Interest rates are at a historic low.

5.  The level of existing housing inventory is moving toward a more balanced level.

Will these factors lead to a quick recovery?  Probably not, but they are all important building blocks upon which a permanent recovery can be build.

For a complete set of numbers, please visit the Indiana Association of Realtors link.

2010 Professional Standards Award: Olga Jeffares

Each year, the Lafayette Regional Association of Realtors (LRAOR) presents its Professional Standards Award to one if its members who "upholds high principles, is faithful to the laws and regulations, the Code of Ethics, and the furtherance of principles of good real estate practice among brokers and the general public."  It is one of most distinguished awards the Association gives each year.  The 2010 award winner is Olga Jeffares, from our office.

Olga joined our company in 1984 and has consistently been a respected leader within the local real estate industry.  She has been active with the LRAOR Forms Committee and the International Center in West Lafayette.  Better Homes and Gardens (our former franchisor) and Coldwell Banker have both recognized Olga for her annual sales volume and she won the Coldwell Banker Shook Marilyn F. Wilson Award for customer service in 2009.  She is well liked and respected by all of us.

We all tip our cap to Olga for the well deserved recognition the LRAOR has bestowed upon her

Journal and Courier's "Readers' Choice Awards"

Thanks to all our friends for supporting us and your kind words during the J&C's "Reader Choice Awards" We sure had a good time visiting with each of you, encouraging your votes. We'll await the results from the newspaper. I'll let you know you it shakes out.


Charlie Shook