Tuesday, May 24, 2011

The Greater Lafayette residential market parallels the national and state statistics

Even though we preach each real estate market is local and has its own characteristics, for the last few months, our local patterns have resembled the trends reported at the national and state levels.  Let me give you some examples.

The US residential market place: 
  • 4/30/2011 year to date existing home sales are 12.9% below the same period in 2010.
  • Likewise, 2011 single family housing starts through 4/30 are 12.8% below the first four months of 2010. 
The Indiana market place: 
  • 4/30/2011 year to date existing home sales are 12.0% below the first four months in 2010 (remarkably close to the national figures).
  • The median sale price through 4/30/2011 is 1.9% below the same period of time in 2010.
  • The number of single family listings that came on the market in the first four months of 2011 were 16.5% below 2010. 
The Tippecanoe County market place:
  • 4/30/2011 year to date existing home sale are 16.1% below 4/30/2010 YTD.
  • The median sale price through 4/30/2011 is 1.9% below the same period of time in 2010 (identical to the state number).
  • The number of single family listings that came on the market in the first four months of 2011 were 15.0% below 2010.
  • 2011 single family housing starts through 4/30 are 8.6% below the same time period in 2010.

I think the most important factor to remember when considering these figures is that each level of our market place (national, state and local) were all favorably impacted last year by the home buyers tax credit that, for all practical purposes, expired on June 30, 2010.  I believe the fact that we are operating in 2011 based solely on the natural strength of our economy (versus government supplied incentives) is a testament to the validity to our emerging recovery.  The test of my speculation will be to see how the 2011 residential market performs in the second half of the summer and into the early fall.  Let's analyze our sales numbers in July, August and September to see if we can find a trend.

Sources:  National Association of Realtors, Indiana Association of Realtors and Tippecanoe Area Plan Commission