November Residential Sales Information

The Indiana Association of Realtors released its November 30th year to date residential sales data for the state.

The Data

Taken at face value, the numbers are not encouraging.  State wide, year to date unit sales are down by 6.4% compared to 2009 and by 13.8% compared to 2008.  Unit sales for November  were 29% below 2009.

The statistics for Tippecanoe County resemble the report for the state, but are a little more encouraging.  Year to date unit sales are 4.8% below 2009 and November was 21% below November of 2009. 

What the Date Means?

Taken at face value, the numbers are not encouraging.  However, when you dig a little deeper, they are not surprising or as troublesome!  The powerful Federal income tax credit program to motivate first time home buyers launched in early 2009 was originally scheduled to expire on November 30, 2009.  The program was extended in mid-November to June 30, 2010.  However, by the time the extension was announced, the Realtor community had cued up a long line of closings in the last two weeks of November in order to meet the deadline.  So, the weeks and months leading up to the first expiration date were very good real estate months in the midst of a real estate recession.

Now that the federal home buyer tax credit has fully expired (6/30/10), we are experiencing a traditional market without the favorable enhancements of a very successful federal stimulus program.  In July, August and September, the transition was very difficult.  The summer months were uncharacteristically slow.  There is no doubt that the extended June 30, 2010 expiration of the tax credit accelerated a large handful of summer buyers (and perhaps 2011 buyers) into the first half of the 2010. 

When the year closes, I anticipate we will see a year that consists of three distinct pieces.  Portions of the first half of the year were characterized by strong sales activity and periodically multiple offers on a property.  The third quarter was very slow, measured by buyer activity (showings, open house activity and written offers).  The fourth quarter is rebounding. Are we emerging from the recession, it is hard to say?  What I can state with confidence is we are clearly emerging from the post tax credit slumber in the third quarter.

Reasons for optimism!

We are seeing a lot of positive signs in the current market place and on the horizon. First of all, we continue to enjoy fine interest rates. The recent slight movement upwards has proven to be a reminder that these rates will not last for ever and serious buyers need to take action.  Second, the buyers we are working with are more serious.  Our relationship between showing activity and offers written has improved.  I don't think there are as many "lookers" in the market as earlier.  That being said, many of our buyers are "looking for a deal" and sellers are not of an equal temperament.  Our negotiations are often long and tiring.  However, for the reasonable and persistent, many great opportunities are coming together.  Finally, the quality of the homes on the market is strong. We have fewer homes listed by "sellers" who are testing the market.

All of these factors cause us to have strong optimism as we prepare to celebrate the holidays and enter 2011 with a full tank of gas.

America's Best Neighborhoods: 2010

Congratulations to the Ninth Street Hill Neighborhood Association for being recognized as one of America's best neighborhoods by the American Planning Association.  Two other distinguished neighborhoods recognized by the Association in 2010 are the Frank Lloyd Wright Historic District of Oak Park, Ill and the Lower Downtown ("Lo Do") neighborhood in Denver.  To qualify for consideration, a neighborhood must be at least ten years old, have definable boundaries and be rich in architecture and history. 

For more information, I've attached a link from Forbes magazine.

Journal and Courier Reader' Choice Awards

Coldwell Banker Shook received pleasant news last week: we are once again the winner of the Journal and Courier's Reader Choice Award in the real estate company division. This is the second year the survey has been performed and the second year we have one.

I'm told there were over 200,000 votes cast, but I also recall that a survey participant had to cast a minimum of 12 votes before their survey could be submitted.  So the number of participants may be in the tens of thousands, but none the less, it is nice to be selected by a large cross section of our community.

Our company has a rich history, of which I am proud.  But what is most exciting to me is what we are doing right now.  The desks formerly occupied with distinction by Dorothy Fischer, Phyllis Windle, Charles and Robert Shook are now filled by an equally talented and energetic group of real estate professionals, who like their predecessors, are amongst the best in the business.  They are implementing marketing techniques we never dreamed of 20 years ago and are involved in complicated property issues that provide a whole new level of service and protection to our customers.

We look forward to serving our community for many more years.  Thanks for your support.

Democracy

Our country made a grassroots decision yesterday to make a fundamental change in the leadership of many its legislative bodies.  Although the election season is lengthy, the decision was made in a short period of time and in an orderly manner. There was no violent uprising by the party taking leadership, no one was assassinated and the transition will take place peacefully during the next two months. 

Whether you are Republican, Democrat, Independent or Libertarian, one has to marvel at how well democracy works.

September Existing Home Sales Numbers.

The Indiana Association of Realtors has released its September, 2010 existing home sales statistics for the state and each county.  The numbers continue to reflect the softness the markets have experienced since the close of the Federal home buyers tax credit on June 30, 2010. The program was incredibly successful in nurturing demand, especially at the first time home buyer level, where the size of the credit was most attractive, and in all likelihood, accelerating some Q3 and 4 2010 demand into the first half of 2010. 

Closed unit sales for the state in September dropped by 17.6%, compared to September, 2009.  However, year to date sales were even with last year, demonstrating the success of the tax credit.  Likewise, pending sales in September (a barometer for October closings) were down by 21.%, but only off by 1.4% on a year to date basis. 

A more encouraging measure, in particular when assessing the future health of the market, is the number of months supply of home sales in inventory.  On a statewide basis, the number of months dropped from 12.0 and 12.1 months in September 2008 and 2009, respectively, to 10.3 months in September, 2010 (a significant14% decline).

The Tippecanoe numbers parallel the State numbers and other peer communities.  Unit sales for the month of September were 19.0% below last year, compared to a 20.5% decline in Marian County and a 22.5% decline in Monroe County.  Year to date units sales in Tippecanoe County are off by 2.0%.  Values are holding steady. The average year to date sale price in Tippecanoe County is 0.4% above last year.

It is still difficult to accurately predict when the local residential market will permanently emerge from this nationwide recession.  However, a few factors are becoming increasingly clear. 

1.  Our industry benefited from the Federal tax credit and accelerated some late 2010 sales into the first half of the year.   We are currently paying the price for the benefit we enjoyed earlier.

2.  There is good reason to believe that in spite of the completion of the tax credit and the temporary moratorium on foreclosures issued by some large banks, we are beyond the bottom of the recession and are on the gradual road to recovery.  Overall conditions are not getting worse.

3.  Employment numbers are slowly getting better rather than worse.

4.  Interest rates are at a historic low.

5.  The level of existing housing inventory is moving toward a more balanced level.

Will these factors lead to a quick recovery?  Probably not, but they are all important building blocks upon which a permanent recovery can be build.

For a complete set of numbers, please visit the Indiana Association of Realtors link.

2010 Professional Standards Award: Olga Jeffares

Each year, the Lafayette Regional Association of Realtors (LRAOR) presents its Professional Standards Award to one if its members who "upholds high principles, is faithful to the laws and regulations, the Code of Ethics, and the furtherance of principles of good real estate practice among brokers and the general public."  It is one of most distinguished awards the Association gives each year.  The 2010 award winner is Olga Jeffares, from our office.

Olga joined our company in 1984 and has consistently been a respected leader within the local real estate industry.  She has been active with the LRAOR Forms Committee and the International Center in West Lafayette.  Better Homes and Gardens (our former franchisor) and Coldwell Banker have both recognized Olga for her annual sales volume and she won the Coldwell Banker Shook Marilyn F. Wilson Award for customer service in 2009.  She is well liked and respected by all of us.

We all tip our cap to Olga for the well deserved recognition the LRAOR has bestowed upon her

Journal and Courier's "Readers' Choice Awards"

Thanks to all our friends for supporting us and your kind words during the J&C's "Reader Choice Awards" We sure had a good time visiting with each of you, encouraging your votes. We'll await the results from the newspaper. I'll let you know you it shakes out.


Charlie Shook

Journal and Courier Readers Choice Awards

Once again Coldwell Banker Shook is a finalist in the "Best Real Estate Company" category in the Journal and Courier's annual Readers Choice Award survey.  We were privileged to win last year.

I am the first to admit that the survey is not statistically meaningful, but the contest is a lot of fun, nonetheless. We're up for the adventure.

So, we are requesting that you go to the Journal and Courier online newspaper, jconline.com, and cast your ballot for Coldwell Banker Shook as your preferred real estate company. The polls are open between Tuesday, October 5th and Saturday, October 9th.  There is only one vote per email address and your votes will be confidential.

Thanks for your support....Charlie

USA Today Article

Congratulations to Greater Lafayette for being featured as the spotlight community in "USA Today's" weekly column, Close to Home.  For those of you not familiar with the column, it identifies a community in the U.S. each week and discusses the condition and unique features of its residential real estate market.  In the September 7th issue of the paper, Lafayette Indiana was featured.

The article, written by Christine Dugas, was well prepared and accurate.  Unfortunately, it was written just after the release of the July closed units numbers, so the tone was tepid.  Maggie Stark, a seasoned agent in our office and President of the Lafayette Regional Association of Realtors did a fine job explaining how the expiration of the home buyers tax credit created a natural decline in volume.  She also touted the overall strength of the community and local economy.

Cheryl Butcher also had an opportunity in the article to feature her 6,300 square foot log home on 14 acres on State Road 38.  It's hard to find better national exposure than the "USA Today".

July Residential Sales

Tippecanoe County Courthouse

As I have written earlier, the residential real state market across our country was favorably impacted by the first time home buyers tax credit created by Congress in early 2009 and expanded to include "move up" buyers in November, 2009.  In order for a buyer to qualify for the tax credit, an accepted offer on a home had to be in place by April 30, 2010 and the transaction had to close by June 30th.  As it turned out, Congress extended the close date deadline to September 30, 2010 after the close of business on June 30th.  [Note:  the inefficiency of Congress at times causes one to scratch their head and wonder why]

We had a strong sense that a meaningful portion of our demand this winter and spring was driven by the tax credit, but it was hard to quantify. As the April 30th deadline to have an offer accepted approached, the local market reached almost a frenzied pace. Many Realtors worked late nights in the weeks preceding April 30th.  It was wonderful!  As we feared, on the days and weeks that followed April 30th, the number of showings and accepted offers dropped noticeable compared to last year, especially for it being so early in the year.

Now that we are more than one month beyond the initial closing date deadline for the tax credit, we can measure the number of closed units with and without the benefit of the tax credit. The numbers are pretty incredible. Year to date residential unit sales through May 31, 2010 in the Greater Lafayette area were 19% ahead of the same period last year.  However, that is when the fun began to end.  Residential unit sales in June were 12% below last year and July was 32% below July, 2009.  On a year to year basis, year to date sales through July are 3% below last year.

We are currently in a slow season, measured by showing activity.  However, what we are experiencing now is not uncommon for the back to school season. We usually see a bump in showing activity and Open House attendance after Labor Day.  Let's wait to see what happens in September.  I'll report back

BAGL Parade of Homes

The Builders' Association of Greater Lafayette will host its annual Parade of Homes on Saturdays and Sundays, July 17th & 18th and 24th & 25th from 9:00 -- 5:00 each day. There will be 20 new homes open for your inspection. The details of each Parade home and there locations can be found on the attached page from the BAGL website. If you would like to review information on existing homes for sale, you can use the property search function from our company's website..

Home Buyers' Tax Credit

June 30th has come and gone.  Even though early evening on the 30th, Congress passed an extension of the closing date to September 30th, we got our deals.  However, it would have not been possible without a lot of extra effort expended by everybody involved with closing a real estate sale (lenders, inspector, appraisers, title companies and Realtors).

It is too early to capture the June, 2010 closing data, but I'm sure we will see a noticeable blip in closings compared to June, 2009.  I will report in a week, when the data is available.  Let's see if I am right.

"Not So Sixties" Home and Garden Tour

For those of you who can't get enough of HGTV, love to see what your neighbors have done to renovate or decorate their homes or enjoy the beauty of a fine residential garden, you might want to consider attending the Barberry Heights "Not So Sixties" Home and Garden tour in West Lafayette. Barberry Heights is a West Lafayette neighborhood developed in the 1960's and early 1970's, north of Sagamore Parkway and south of Cumberland Avenue between Salisbury and Soldiers Home Roads.

Here's a snippet from the material promoting the event.

"REMEMBER THE 60’S? Acres of avocado green and harvest
gold shag carpeting inside, with rows of round trimmed yew
bushes, looking like big fat birds, for landscaping in the yard?
Barbarry Heights is NOT SO SIXTIES now! Five neighbors
are inviting you to see their remodeled family homes and four
more are showing their gardens. All have been updated and
remodeled, highlighting what owner effort and imagination
can do to transform homes and landscaping.
Please join us to see large open spaces, lofts, wide windows,
new kitchens, and family antiques mixed with new colors and
collections. Gardens include Japanese, cottage, with medicinal
and aromatic plants, and just beautiful.
--Maybe a few new ideas, and at least a lovely afternoon!"

Tickets can be purchased in advanced at Ace Hardware and Gretel's in WL or Bennett's Garden Center in Lafayette Tickets can be purchased the day of the event in Lomell Park near the intersection of Barlow and Wilshire Streets in Barberry Heights. Tickets are $5 a piece. Children under 12 years old are free.

Life after the Home Buyers' Tax Credit

When I last wrote, I commented that it has been hard to quantify the impact of the Federal Home Buyers' Tax Credit Now that we have sales numbers, it's easier to measure. The results are very exciting.

Overall, sales volume in the Greater Lafayette residential market area through 4/30/10 were up by 38% from the same period of 2009. As I suggested in my prior post, the increase in activity was not equally spread across all price points. Although designed to assist home buyers at a multiple of price ranges, the value was found to be the highest among first time home buyers. Sales volume below in homes priced below $150,000 was up by 64%. On the other hand, volume between $150,000 and $300,000 was only up by 13%. But the important work in that sentence is "up". A very interesting occurrence took place in the market between $300,000 and $450,000, where volume rose by 80%. That is amazing.

On a more troublesome note, the softness in demand in houses priced above $450,000 continued to be slow. Sales volume in the first four months was 88% below the same period in 2009. Take a look at the link I created that shows the quality of homes for sale above $450,000.
Homes for sale above in Lafayette/West Lafayette above $450,000.

In the weeks that followed the 4/30/10 expiration of the tax credit eligibility, we saw a significant decrease in the number of showings of our listings. This is comes as no large surprise. There is no doubt that the attractive terms of the tax credit accelerated some demand that might have occurred otherwise later in the year. However as a group of real estate professionals, we would be remiss if we did not remind all members of our community that now, more than ever, is an excellent time to purchase a new home.

• Interest rate are very attractive.
• Our major employers are calling employees back to work.
• The Lilly to Evonik sale is complete and jobs are saved.
• There is an abundance of well priced homes for sale.
• Greater Lafayette continues to be a national leader in the stability of property values.

There is still more than enough time to identify and purchase a home before the 2010/2011 school year begins.

P.S. The Barn is at Historic Prophetstown in the Prophetstown State Park.

Spring in Residential Real Estate

We have made it through another winter and are enjoying the good weather and final days of the Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit program. The current program provides up to an $8,000 federal income tax credit to eligible first time home buyers and up to a $6,500 credit for eligible non-first time home buyers. In order to qualify, an accepted offer must be in place by April 30th and the sale must close by June 30th. Our office is very busy. Many agents are working late into the evening and often seven days a week.

It is hard to truly measure the impact the program has had on demand, but most of us would suggested it has been considerable. Year to date unit sales of existing homes in Tippecanoe County through March 31st are 17% higher than the same period last year. However, as I have mentioned in other writings, the strong demand has not been enjoyed by all price points. Here is a break down of 3/31 year to date unit sales in Tippecanoe County by price range compared to the timeframe last year.

1. Unit sales of home price less than $200,000 grew by 21% from 214 to 260.
2. Unit sales of homes priced between $200,000 and $400,000 grew by 4% from 44 to 46
3. Unit sales of homes priced above $400,000 dropped by 40% from 5 to 3.
4. Total unit sales grew by 17% from 263 to 309

These numbers would indicate that: 1) the middle price and upper price ranges are still soft and 2) the Federal Tax Credit is driving demand in the typical first and second time home buyer price ranges. It will be interesting to learn in early May what happens to our demand after the first eligibity deadline has passed. We are all hoping that the natural momentum of spring buyers season and the pleasant weather will support much of the demand we are enjoying. I'll report back in mid-May and report what we find.

US Housing Prices Fall Modestly in the Fourth Quarter: 2009/Greater Lafayette Fares Better

Recently published data from the Federal Housing Finance Authority reports existing home sale values dropped by 1.2% from the fourth quarter of 2008. That compares very favorably to a 8.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2008 over 2007.

The numbers for Greater Lafayette are more encouraging. Of the 298 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Greater Lafayette's appreciation in housing value in the fourth quarter on a year over year basis, ranked number 32 with an average 0.19% appreciation. Other Indiana MSA's also fared well. In fact, Terre Haute was ranked number one.

City/Rank/Year to Year 4th Quarter Appreciation

Terre Haute/1/3.11%
Bloomington/20/0.83%
Evansville/29/0.43%
Lafayette/32/0.19%
Indy/53/-0.55%
South Bend/93/-1.70%
Anderson/102/-1.95%
Fort Wayne/123/-2.55%
Gary/149/-3.38%
Kokomo/208/-5.98%

Again, the processes measures and ranks appreciation in housing value from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2009.

For those who spend time in the south, Florida continues to struggle. Here are the same statistics for selected Florida MSA's

Punta Gorda/191/-5.48%
Fort Meyers/263/-9.71%
Tampa-St. Pete/271/-10.75%
West Palm Beach/272/-10.86%
Naples/287/-8.03%
Miami/288/-14.02%

For those who are interested, the lowest rank MSA was Las Vegas, with a 19.30% average 12 month loss in value. Our issues in central Indiana appear less complicated as one reviews the economic statistics in other communities.

2009 Awards

Last Tuesday, Coldwell Banker Shook hosted its annual awards breakfast at the Holiday Inn. Our featured speaker was Mayor Tony Roswarski, who gave an interesting overview of the many capital projects the city embarked upon in 2009.

After Mayor Roswarski's comments, the 2009 awards were announced. The company had a very impressive year, during what was one of our country's more difficult years in residential real estate. The company ended the year with a commanding 22.4% of the market and 43.4% for properties above $300,000. Amongst its friends in the Coldwell Banker community, Coldwell Banker Shook was the number one office in the state and the largest office in its size category in the Northern Region, one the three geographic Coldwell Banker regions.

Coldwell Banker National is proud to present awards to its top sales across the country each year. Many of the Coldwell Banker Shook agents earned these national distinctions. 2009 national award winner from Coldwell Banker Shook are as follows.

INTERNATIONAL STERLING SOCIETY

Julie Runner-Boyce
Jan Dowell
Kathryn Oreovicz
Dolly Poston-Zollars

INTERNATIONAL DIAMOND SOCIETY

Individual

Cheryl Butcher
Olga Jeffares
Sherry Peck
Kelly Schreckengast

Team

Corbin-Flock Team

Brenda Hatfield Team

Mary Holtz and Kent Brewer

The Junius Group

INTERNATIONAL PRESIDENT’S CIRCLE

Kathy Lafuse
Leslie Weaver

In addition, we learned that Kathy Lafase was the number one Coldwell Banker agent in the state.

The breakfast was adjourned by the company's management sharing how proud it is of the entire sales staff and the loyal and dedicated staff of administrative and management professionals that hold the organization together. Before leaving the breakfast we played a short, but rousing game of trivia.

2009 Real Estate Report

My cousin and business partner, Steve Shook, and I have recently completed our annual real estate report. It is an indepth study of the what occured in the Tippecaone County commercial and residential real estate markets in 2009 and a set of projections for 2010.

If you are interested in a copy of the report, please send me your emial address and I'll forward you a copy in the form of a Word document. My email address is cshook@shook.com.