September Existing Home Sales Numbers.

The Indiana Association of Realtors has released its September, 2010 existing home sales statistics for the state and each county.  The numbers continue to reflect the softness the markets have experienced since the close of the Federal home buyers tax credit on June 30, 2010. The program was incredibly successful in nurturing demand, especially at the first time home buyer level, where the size of the credit was most attractive, and in all likelihood, accelerating some Q3 and 4 2010 demand into the first half of 2010. 

Closed unit sales for the state in September dropped by 17.6%, compared to September, 2009.  However, year to date sales were even with last year, demonstrating the success of the tax credit.  Likewise, pending sales in September (a barometer for October closings) were down by 21.%, but only off by 1.4% on a year to date basis. 

A more encouraging measure, in particular when assessing the future health of the market, is the number of months supply of home sales in inventory.  On a statewide basis, the number of months dropped from 12.0 and 12.1 months in September 2008 and 2009, respectively, to 10.3 months in September, 2010 (a significant14% decline).

The Tippecanoe numbers parallel the State numbers and other peer communities.  Unit sales for the month of September were 19.0% below last year, compared to a 20.5% decline in Marian County and a 22.5% decline in Monroe County.  Year to date units sales in Tippecanoe County are off by 2.0%.  Values are holding steady. The average year to date sale price in Tippecanoe County is 0.4% above last year.

It is still difficult to accurately predict when the local residential market will permanently emerge from this nationwide recession.  However, a few factors are becoming increasingly clear. 

1.  Our industry benefited from the Federal tax credit and accelerated some late 2010 sales into the first half of the year.   We are currently paying the price for the benefit we enjoyed earlier.

2.  There is good reason to believe that in spite of the completion of the tax credit and the temporary moratorium on foreclosures issued by some large banks, we are beyond the bottom of the recession and are on the gradual road to recovery.  Overall conditions are not getting worse.

3.  Employment numbers are slowly getting better rather than worse.

4.  Interest rates are at a historic low.

5.  The level of existing housing inventory is moving toward a more balanced level.

Will these factors lead to a quick recovery?  Probably not, but they are all important building blocks upon which a permanent recovery can be build.

For a complete set of numbers, please visit the Indiana Association of Realtors link.